A Song Of Ice And Fire

Just finished a re-read of the series, first reread since beginning to engage with fan theories and such. A fan observation that I've seen and think is really valuable, is that when characters in asoiaf make plans and we see the details, the events usually go awry. Most of the speculation I've seen regarding Aegon VI has his invasion basically going according to the plan Varys lays out in the adwd epilogue. I understand this because he outlines what seems to be the obvious trajectory of events following Kevan and Pycelle's deaths, and Varys has proven a capable manipulator so we trust him to make nudge things along in that direction further. However I would look at his claims and start a bit of a brainstorm on counterfactuals.

• 1. The Lannisters and Tyrells were reconciling, and with Kevan's death they will irreparably at odds, blaming each other, and the dornish.
• 2. Binding the faith to Tommen.
• 3. Aegon VI's capture of Storm's End will both happen, and draw the lords of the realm to him.
• 4. Aegon VI being raised similarly to Aegon V will make him a good king.

1. It seems so obvious that Cersei will blame the Tyrells, but he also covertly gives another option, could they unite and blame the dornish together? This seems like a possible alternate avenue to me, especially after the business with Myrcella, Dorne keeping their armies in reserve, the Red Viper defending Tyrion etc.

2. Other than Baelor the Blessed, the Targs have kind of always been at odds with the faith of the seven. If Tommen becomes especially pious, it seems to me that it would take more than Kevan's death to stop the faith from binding itself to him.

3. Aside from the riverlands and the north, the stormlands seem like the next most depeleted / demobilized of the kingdoms, most of their armies and lords are either with Stannis in the north, or adjoined to one of the Tyrell hosts. If Stannis' lords basically looted their own larders on the way out, holding the stormlands might mainly bring logistical challenges as the golden company needs to organize and start to administer their lands in winter, while facing the logistical might of the Tyrells.

4. Aegon VI being a king who does right by the smallfolk is appealing to us, the readers, but in universe (with the exception of Jaehaerys I, who had dragons) these kings face a lot of pushback from the noble class and are often embattled and ineffective rulers. Not exactly a surefire recipe for an insurgent king.

5. Not mentioned by Varys, but related: Jon Connington has greyscale. I don't know that we have enough time left in the story for a grey plague subplot to run its course, but the revelation could doom Aegon's cause. Perhaps Aegon himself too, if he contracts it somehow.

What do you think? Other ways the Aegon cause may not run smoothly? Other details, for or against what I've brought up?