this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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I'm not sure Russia gets to terminate the war at this point. Even stopping offensive actions wouldn't meet Ukraine's requirements. Russia needs to be expelled from all of Ukraine, including Crimea.
They could terminate the war (by leaving) but not just the offence.
That would be awesome, but I suspect Putin would sacrifice the lives of his entire population before giving up Crimea.
Why? Between the two Russia is the bigger part.
For Putin? Two Reason: 1. He would look super weak and unsuccessful if he lost Crimea. 2. It's in Russias mind very very important to keep Crimea and additionally a land Bridge to Crimea to "control the black sea" with their navy...
Both are Bs.
I was more pointing out it's an exaggeration to say he'd sacrifice the whole rest of Russia.
At this point Ukraine is not his biggest problem, though. He has internal challengers.
I'd think you'd struggle to get even his immediate, hopefully liberal, successors to give it up. There are even more liberal Russians that support Crimea's annexation on account of it historically and ethnically being seen as Russian, obviously the ethnic cleansing practiced during Stalin's time helped ensure this. The Crimeans themselves are hard to say because nearly any poll that has actually been conducted on them has been biased one way or the other. I'd still guesstimate that a good majority of them will possibly want to stay with Russia since war support seems decently high there. I don't think there is an easy path for Crimea to come back to Ukraine even if the Russians agree to relinquish it.
Yes, when Ukraine takes it (which is I think where we're headed) they're going to have a hell of a time integrating it. It was added to Ukraine after Stalin died; when people say it's not historically a part of Ukraine they have a point.