this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2023
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Xcom actually fudges the hit chances in the players favor unless you play on highest difficulty. Then it is just true values.
Anecdotally I can say what this guy is saying about Xcom 2 is correct. I just mentally shift the percentages down by about 20%. That said I never got past a certain level. There were some big enemies that no matter what I hit them with I couldn't scratch them.