this post was submitted on 03 Sep 2023
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How long until Apple adopts RISC-V?
They already are, just not as main processors. They're using it for all the microcontrollers that are essential in modern computers.
My guess would be at least 10 years. They just switched processors, so I don't think they will do it again in the near future. Maybe for some devices they'll do it earlier.
Off the top of my head...
Late 90s moved from Motorola 68k to Power PC.
Early aughts moved from PowerPC to Intel x86.
2020's moved from Intel x86 to ARMv8.
It feels like 10 years is a good prediction for when they'll shift everything again.
I'm no fan of Apple, but without a behemoth to force adoption of new architectures, we'd be stuck in the x86 duopoly for the indefinite future.
This one may last longer. They did not just move to ARM. They make their own chips now. Also, they are leveraging this across not just desktop / laptop but mobile too.
Apple has never transitioned on the iPhone or iPad. They have always been ARM. Now they are Apple silicon as well.
I think it's far more likely the chinese companies will lead the risc-v parade, they're bullish on being more independent, for good reason
Apple has a unique deal with ARM that puts them in an unusually strong market position at the moment. The odds of them trading that out for an open-source platform are effectively nil, barring massive market shifts that make it inevitable.
Apple makes their own silicon these days. There is almost zero incentive to switch and a bunch of switching costs that they have not even completed after moving away from Intel.
Apple is not going to switch anytime soon. Even if RISC-V started to dominate on the desktop ( a long, long road ), Apple would stick with ARM.