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this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2023
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Technology
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IMO lurkers that just browse Reddit just for getting answers to something they were searching on Google will obviously continue using the app. For them this won’t matter, and they constitute the majority of the Reddit user-base.
I guess most of the Third Party App users are somewhat tech savvy and understand that their official app is a total piece of shit. But as you said, Reddit is okay with losing these somewhat small amount of users.
I think this is right, but there is a bit of a confounding factor in that mods and power users of reddit are disproportionately likely to jump ship IMO. So while the masses might still show up to reddit, it's entirely possible that the quality of the content will take a nosedive anyway. I'm not really sure how much of a difference that makes. I suspect not enough of one to kill reddit off completely, but I do think there's a good chance that it's enough to get Lemmy off the ground and viable. I think we probably only need to see 1% or maybe even fewer users migrate here from reddit to make Lemmy active enough that I never have any reason to go back to reddit again.
This. This is highly likely and if this happens, Reddit will be soon reduced to something like Quora. Still will be Google’s favourite, but won’t have the quality content and/or the community it needs to become what it once was.
I think, and hope, that you're correct.