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They broke it out as 53% wouldn't support him if he's the GOP nominee, and another 11% wouldn't support him in November 2024.
...what's the difference between those two things?
Yeah, that confused me as well. I had to read that 3 times to figure out the distinction.
"the GOP nominee" and "in November 2024" both refer to the same thing, but the phrasing change distracts from the definitely/probably thing.
Boy 53% definitely would not support is so bad for him. RCP has the average of polls at 44.4% Biden, 44% Trump, but if 53% definitely would not support Trump then he can only improve by 3 points at most and he'd have to rely on a 3rd party to get the vast majority of the remaining 9% of the electorate? That is a big ask.
The gop is pushing for a "unity party" led by rfk Jr to hurt dems, and attract never-trumper republicans. The Dems are not that stupid, but I'm not sure about the never-trumpers. The might prefer a protest vote to Biden.
I suppose in the event that Trump runs on a different platform? He is a bit soggy like that