So it's well known now that the developer of Apollo estimated the new API pricing would cost $20 million a year. For a source, see the title of https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/31/23743993/reddit-apollo-client-api-cost
But from https://apnews.com/article/reddit-blackout-steve-huffman-ceo-api-0a4f7b344ecfbf50c924b030c344c55e the price from supporting third party apps is $!0 million a year. And presumably this is all third party apps combined!
Huffman says the “pure infrastructure costs” of supporting these apps costs Reddit about $10 million each year.
Something's very not balanced here. That one app would have paid for Reddit's third party infra costs twice over.
I can not remember which ones now (can anyone help me out here actually?), but I think a few apps said they'd try to make it work with the new pricing.
Which means Reddit likely stands to make a huge pot of money once the new API changes take effect, in the short term.
Even if Reddit loses the best subs, the best communities, the best users, and the moderation goes to where the sun don't shine, I could see that new revenue boosting investors confidence enough to lead to a successful (if slightly smaller) IPO.
If Reddit goes downhill and loses lots of value afterwards, well, spez has already made his quick buck, so I doubt he wouldn't feel very sentimental about it.
Folks, please explain to me why I'm wrong. Please.
I think this whole thread/post is over-thinking it. If all reddit wanted was to break-even or make some profit off of the api, they wouldn't have priced it this way. They would have had changed the api to a key system and then created a two tier pricing system: third party apps like RIF and Apollo, and a large commercial license for LLM training and such.
This is fuck you pricing. As in, if you don't want to take a job, you tell them the price is 8x your normal hourly rate. You either get that bag or more likely, they don't offer the job. Although I say this with less certainty than I would have a month ago seeing exactly how stupid reddit is about all of this, I can't believe that anyone at reddit is so out of touch they actually thought any of the third party app devs could afford this pricing, and if they did and it wasn't just to kill apps, they would changed the pricing structure and not triple/quadrupled down.
This is just Huffman going after the IPO so he can get his golden parachute and peace out. I would absolutely put money on him being out less than a year after IPO, with the small asterisk that as bad as he's fumbling right now the board might kick him before that.
This is exactly what I was thinking. I guess the stuff about API pricing is somewhat orthogonal to that.
The funniest thing is that he is late for LLM pricing. OpenAI, Meta et all already scrapped the whole Reddit dataset many times over.