Ukraine

Something that caught my eye here: It's estimated that russia has about 600 000 troops in Ukraine. If we're generous, that's maybe 300 000 frontline troops (see table 9). At 30 000 casualties per month, that means 10 % of the russian frontline troops become casualties every month, which is absolutely insane.

If 50 % of the casualties return to the frontline (generous), this means that half of the frontline troops need to be replaced every 10 months. Russia isn't even making progress, and hasn't for quite a while. This kind of casualty rate is very clearly not sustainable for them. If recruitment numbers start dropping even a little bit, their frontline units are likely to become combat ineffective within just a couple of months.

I hadn't looked at the numbers this closely in a while, but it seems very clear to me that the russian army is just barely holding it together at this point. If (when) their recruitment pool dries up, they'll only be able to hold for maybe six months before their frontline units are too depleted to hold the line anymore, and their ability to conduct assaults would dwindle even before that.

Here's to hoping russians figure out that becoming a frontline troop gives them a 70 % chance of becoming a casualty within a year, and that they stop signing up to be gunned down soon...