this post was submitted on 30 Mar 2025
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cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/59867996

German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.

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[–] [email protected] 136 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Depends which side the US is on

[–] [email protected] 59 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Bingo.

And also depends on which side China is on. Their war production dwarfs even the US, and I find it difficult to believe that it will all be spent fighting the US and Taiwan.

There is a very real possibility that these three countries gang up together and divide the world among themselves.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 week ago (1 children)

At this point it seems much more likely that the US sides with Russia than China. The EU is their largest trading partner, they'd never risk losing that market.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Why would Russia risk alienating China?

In realpolitik, China is the more desirable partner than the USA.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Russia has alienated China already by being an unstable and unpredictable mess of a country.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

The problem is China is right there, and a lot of parts of Russia used to have Chinese names.

Mostly, Siberia is literally infinite resources, the kind of thing China desperately needs.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago

And China basically has a monopoly on Siberia with the current arrangements.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

Why would either need to side with Russia? They only have 140m people, a untrustworthy and soon to be unstable government. If you're aim is to carve up territory then you don't give a potential long term adversary access to half a billion people.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Alliances aren't forever. Hitler and Stalin made an agreement not to fight each other, which worked to the benefit of both for a while, and the Trump admin and Putin are more closely aligned ideologically than those two ever were. Alliances can be made for expedience and short-term gain, even with a potential long-term adversary.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

You don't 'need' Russia, but it's mutually beneficial to have them on your side.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

...

The only thing worse than having Russia as an enemy is having them as an ally.

They're a catastrophe in nation form, the best thing we can do is push them as close to China as possible and watch them shoot themselves in the dick.

That's why Trump is such a nightmare, he's showing them our dicks.

[–] [email protected] 48 points 1 week ago (2 children)

US has a sizeable advantage in terms of sheer firepower but lacks the collective will to side with Russia in a conflict with NATO. To be clear, the Trump administration might try to side with Russia and the initial consequences of that would be very serious. But, long term, I think that would bring a swift end to the US' global dominance. Potentially even bringing us to the point of total collapse.

That's just one American's perspective though.

[–] [email protected] 43 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

As an European, could you please collapse before siding with Russia over us? That would be great, thanks.

Alternatively, and much preferred, just kick the whole Trump administration into the ocean, hold your own Nuremberg trials and start refreshed into the future. K thx bye.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 week ago

Alternatively, and much preferred, just kick the whole Trump administration into the ocean, hold your own Nuremberg trials and start refreshed into the future. K thx bye.

I like the way you think.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Don't worry, we would.

The south would demand we side with the champions of (white) Christian culture.

The coasts would finally have enough and we'd continue the civil war we should have finished 160 years ago.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Reconstruction ending the way it did was a national tragedy.

Second times the charm as they say. . .

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago

I’m honestly ready for Civil War 2. Let the south rise again so I can kick some fascist ass. It’s what they’ve always fantasized about anyway.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 week ago (1 children)

But is there a downside for the guy running our country?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

There was no downside for Gaddafi.

Until there was.