Leopards Ate My Face

Commodity crops prices often trend the inverse of the economy. The reason is simple; It is highly dependent on the export market.

When overall economy is strong, the dollar is strong versus other currencies. This makes importing easier and exporting harder. So prices for commodities in the U.S. fall.

When the overall economy is weak the dollar falls in value. This makes importing harder but exporting much easier. Prices for commodities rise rapidly and farmers make more gross money.

Even through they are making more gross income their cost skyrocket so their net returns are in general pretty average.

Farmers tend to make the most money when the economy is in recovery mode and commodity prices are still higher but input costs fall.

So here is the vicious cycle we have fallen into. Republicans get into power and crash the economy. When it crashes, farmers get high prices but low returns. Democrats come in, repair the economy but by the time elections come around, farmers have not made any money for a year or two. Rinse and repeat.

Now the orange moron adds a bit of a twist to it. Trade war: This can fuck the farmer up really bad as buyers are willing to pay a modest premium to minimize the impact of an unreliable trading partner. It reduces both the volume moved and prices offered from other countries for years.