430
Kamala Harris won politicaly engaged voters, but lost voters who don't follow politics.
(www.nbcnews.com)
this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2024
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I appreciate that you ran the numbers.
When I ran the number I had a few other takeaways worth noting.
Looking at the numbers this way, you see that Trump was able to turnout the vote more than Harris in the seven swing states. What were they doing right? Who were these people?
In NC, you see a lot of split ticket votes. These are people who voted for Trump for President, but then voted for the Democratic governor. In MI, AZ, WI, and NV you see a split tickets electing Democratic Senators.
Swing voters and independents, like you mentioned in your first message, aren't as prominent as self-reporting polling suggests. But low-propensity voters have no loyalty. They may vote, they may not, they may vote Republican or Democrat. They are the true vibe voter. And in the seven swing states, they matter. In a dystopic way, all our fates lie with about 10-15% of the voting population who could take it to leave it.
Finally, as for those who stay home... We have a consistent 1/3 of the voting eligible population who don't vote. Some of these people just haven't reached any meaningful political consciousness. They are young or unhoused or just don't think the system can change. But then there's a portion of that 1/3 that vote one cycle and not the next. This makes a portion of that 1/3 dynamic. But they just don't feel that their vote counts. That last one could change if we change the system. But we only change the system when we are in crisis. And then we only change the system enough to get out of crisis.
Thanks for this... Yeah, I think the Dems need to run a campaign of "we're going to unfuck the election system first and foremost" (and have a good plan) to get a lot of the couch sitters to vote.