Technology
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Dunno why this is being down voted, obviously they'll make their own fork and it'll likely be no different than the regular kernel and they'll just be constantly rebasing
That's likely what's going to happen in short to medium term, but it's quite possible it'll diverge eventually. We can look at Huawei forking Android as an example here, they kept it largely compatible for a few years, and then started taking things in a new direction that broke compatibility. Between Russia and China alone there's a huge pool of talented developers who can rival anything developers in the west can do.