this post was submitted on 25 Oct 2024
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[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Iran made it clear that if the attack was contained, than they would let it be. If not, then they retaliate.

If they do intend to retaliate, I don't expect it happening before the election. They know these kinds of things help Trump and the last thing they want is a Trump presidency.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

My problem is that I don't trust Israel's claim that this was precise and I also don't trust Iran's claim that if it is contained, they won't retaliate.

Because I don't trust either government at all.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

Trust them to serve their own self interests.

Israel's interest is escalating and prolonging the conflict to grab more land and kill more Arabs and Persians.

Iran's interest is de-escalation since they're in no shape to fight a war with Israel, and the US.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

You could be right in general, but you should know that Iranians are not Arabs and they hate being mistaken for Arabs.

http://www.us-iran.org/resources/2016/10/21/myth-vs-fact-persians-and-arabs

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 weeks ago

Forgot about that lol, thanks for reminding me. I've edited my comment.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

I don't think they said they would not retaliate against a limited attack though that might end up being the case depending on the nature and scale of the damages.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

They did say it.

If Israeli strikes — a response to a barrage of missiles from Iran earlier this month — inflict widespread damage and high casualties, they said, Iran will retaliate. But if Israel limits its attack to a few military bases and warehouses storing missiles and drones, Iran might well do nothing.

The officials said Ayatollah Khamenei had directed that a response would be certain if Israel strikes oil and energy infrastructure or nuclear facilities, or if it assassinates senior officials.

They made the terms clear. Now we see if Israel abides by them. My guess is no.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Different statements were made in the past month:

Iran's General Staff of the Armed Forces said in a statement carried by state media that any Israeli response would be met with "vast destruction" of Israeli infrastructure.

I believe the Iranian ambassador said something of the same vein at the UN security council meeting as well. Either way I still agree that they likely wont respond to this type of limited strike as things currently stand.