this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Maybe I'm crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
Edit - Oops: https://midwest.social/post/18205923?scrollToComments=true
Gamblers don't always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html
Gamblers, polls, and the NYT's most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.