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Jon Stewart: Trump Is The Opposite of Who His Supporters Claim He Is | The Daily Show
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That's talking about the Electoral College and chances of winning the election. I was talking about the popular vote, and specifically mentioned that without the Electoral College Republicans wouldn't have a chance.
Please, point out to me, in the methodology of the poll, which is provided at the bottom of the page, where is it stated that 46/49 numbers are some arbitrary chances of winning the election?
My reading is that they're averages of other polls that are polling popular vote, e.g. simply asking "which candidate would you vote for if the elections were tomorrow?".
But, please, I'm happy to be proven wrong.