this post was submitted on 02 Jul 2024
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I know that The Dunning-Kruger effect has been disproven; but fuck a "good understanding" means what exactly? The people I work with (are they representative of the population? Maybe..) have trouble using excel well, most people have no idea how their computer works or why it works. Just because you can use something does not mean you understand it.
Work paid for me to go to a "getting started with AI for businesses" seminar run by [redacted reputable organisation name] and holy crap the FOMO.
The more I see & hear, the more I think its all grift.
Ie the crypto bros left their coins for nfts, and now they've tanked they're finding something else to burn the planet down in order to scam suckers.
I don't think it's all grift - there are absolutely places where LLMs are the best tech out there, but it's probably not going to take everyone's jobs any time soon (at least not on merit - in sure there are plenty of places that'd accept a 50% drop in quality for a 90% drop in price)
I've seen a pretty compelling case study of a company using an LLM as a "tier zero" support tech - instead of getting a tier 1 tech to classify a case, decide if they had the tools to address the issue or if it needs to go to tier 2, work out if it was an instance of a known issue etc before they actually start working on the problem, give the LLM some examples and get it to do the triage so the humans can do the more complicated stuff. It does about as well as a human, for a fraction of the price.
I'd have to see that in action before I pass judgement but given LLMs predilection for hallucination and the vagaries of how humans report tech faults I would be surprised if it was significantly more accurate or effective than a human. After all if its working out if there's a known issue then essentially its not much beyond a script at that point and in that case do you want to trade the unpredictability of what an LLM might recommend vs something (human or otherwise) that will follow the script?
Even if an LLM were an effective level 0 helpdesk it would still need to overcome the user's cultural expectation (in many places) that they can pick up the phone and speak to somebody about their problem. Having done that job a long long time ago, diagnosing tech problems for people who don't understand tech can be a fairly complex process. You have to work through their lack of understanding, lack of technical language. You sometimes have to pick up on cues in their hesitations, frustrated tone of voice etc.
I'm sure an LLM could synthesis that experience 80% of the time, but depending on the tech you're dealing with you could be missing some pretty major stuff in the 20%, especially if an LLM gives bad instructions, or closes without raising it etc. So you then need to pay someone to monitor the LLM and watch what its doing - at which point you've hired your level 1 tech again anyway.
Its probably on the same scale as CVs, which all those people struggling with Excel probably wrote "Good Excel skills" on their resume.
I don't know about my terrible CV but I've always claimed I forgot everything about excel - man, I hate the thing passionately.
Having said that I fully support embellishing on ones CV 'cos the role descriptions are word salad or what could best be considered 'creative writing'
I also hate Excel, but it's more of a love/hate relationship.
I'll always remember helping someone with excel and having to explain "yes, I know you've gone through some nice GUI menu and come to this field asking you for the date, but you gotta write in 42654.523, so it's easier if you just ask me every time instead of me trying to teach you why it's this way."
I also love/hate excel. It is great for a lot of simple jobs where writing code would take to much time, it is terrible because you can't audit your code* easily or at all. You get these hideously complex sheets referencing who knows what with no documentation.....
That's what excel is; code for people who don't know they're writing code - and its clearly a bad way of doing most of the things people do with it.
But on the flipside you have to give it props for getting people a foot into programming, even if they don't realise that's what they're doing (and folks who use actual languages and lines of text to achieve the same thing don't accept it for what it kinda is).
I think you could make an argument that Excel is the world's most used/successful IDE ;)
Haha oh boy, if there's one eternal rule with complex excel sheets it's that no one other than the person who made it will ever truely understand it 😆. But you can write VBA functions and throw them in the formulas to make them a bit tidier.
Not after 3 months - that's about when I've lost everything mentally.
Maybe it was all that acid in the 60s... (Hint: I'm nowhere near 80)
You can.....not everybody can.
To be fair, I'm not convinced I could anymore. It's been a long time.