this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2024
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The first presidential debate is done and the aftermath has not been good for the incumbent, Joe Biden.

Some Democrat politicians and operatives reportedly texted CNN commentators with hopes that Mr Biden, 81, would step aside. Some floated the possibility of going to the White House and publicly stating concerns about him remaining as candidate.

But if Mr Biden were to drop out, it would be a free-for-all. There is no official mechanism for him or anyone else in the party to choose his successor, meaning Democrats would be left with an open (Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago from August 19-22.

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[–] [email protected] 29 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (7 children)

Is it really feasible to replace Biden at this point? I didn't watch the debate last night but from what I've heard it was not good for Biden. Nonetheless, I think Biden remains the Democrats' best option. They're just going to have to rely on the electorate recognizing that Biden is still the better of the two choices, as pathetic as that reality may be. However, even if that strategy is somehow successful, again, and Biden does manage to get reelected, the Democrats MUST nominate a better candidate in 2028. I don't think the Democrats can continue with their strategy of just being better than terrible, indefinitely.

[–] [email protected] 25 points 4 months ago (1 children)

"Not good" is an understatement. Potential career ender.

If Trump wins in November, this debate will be exhibit #1.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 4 months ago (2 children)

At his age the cold he supposedly had is a potential career ender. "He just had a cold that made him feeble" isn't a great alternative explanation when you're talking about an 81 year old.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 4 months ago

Who has the most important and powerful job in the world...

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

All you have to do is imagine Putin manages to convince Cuba to let him put some nukes in there. Instead of being able to act effectively, Biden is dealing with a cold at the time. Just the shittiest luck. We need a president that can show up when they're needed.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

However, even if that strategy is somehow successful, again, and Biden does manage to get reelected, the Democrats MUST nominate a better candidate in 2028.

The Constitution mandates a maximum of two terms for a President. If he wins, he can't run again. He can technically additionally serve up to half of a term without "using up" one of his terms if he's vice-president and the serving President dies.

The two-term limit was originally purely a convention that had been set by George Washington, who was getting on in years, wasn't many years away from his death, really wanted to retire to his plantation (as in, he didn't even want to serve a second term, and was only convinced to do so by politicians arguing that without him, there might not be sufficient unity), and was also extremely popular and would have been re-elected again.

That convention held until FDR broke it and ran for four terms. In response to that, the Twenty-second Amendment was passed, prohibiting anyone from having more than two terms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

[–] [email protected] 16 points 4 months ago

The Constitution mandates a maximum of two terms for a President. If he wins, he can't run again.

I know, I didn't mean to imply that the Democrats would try to run Biden again, only that they might try to run a similarly "weak" candidate in 2028, believing that the American people will vote for the candidate simply because they are Democrat and not Republican. I think that would be a mistake.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (2 children)

I don't really understand how it could be too late.

Float a candidate under 60 and they win riotous support from Democrats and undecideds.

Biden is the only Democrat that Trump has a chance of beating.

Perhaps there has never been changes this late in the cycle, but come on... we're breaking new ground in so many ways.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago

Float a candidate under 60 and they win riotous support from Democrats and undecideds.

But who would that be? Do you remember the 2020 primaries? They started out with 29 candidates, the most since the modern primaries began back in 1972, and several of them were under 60, including Pete Buttigieg, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, and Kamala Harris. Only Pete Buttigieg won any delegates (29 out of a possible 3,979). The Democrats have had many years to find a younger candidate who could unify the party. No such candidate has emerged, that I'm aware of, and so Biden, at 81 years old and showing signs of rapid cognitive decline, ran essentially unopposed in this year's primaries.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago

Shillary Clinton will be the DNC nominee again if too many people complain about Joe.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

Unlikely. People keep pointing to the two times it has happened in the past but they NEVER say anything about how THEY FAILED BOTH TIMES lmao

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

There are absolutely zero good options this late in the game, but I feel someone like Sherrod Brown has to be a million times better than Biden. Either way yeah, they need to start merchandising their wins and develop a real platform that is “proactive” for ‘28.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

It's absolutly possible, here's my comment on it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I really don't think it would work at this point, but if I were to pick someone to replace Biden it wouldn't be Gavin Newsom, it would be Andy Beshear. But that's just it, this country is so divided we can't find a consensus candidate.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

Trump and Biden aren't consensus candidates either. We don't need to find the second coming of JFK to make it work.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 4 months ago (2 children)

No party has ever tried changing a candidate at this point. It's not even clear how the Primary / Conventions should go legally speaking.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 4 months ago (1 children)

?? It's extremely clear. The Democratic nominations are not a legal matter. The Democratic party is not an arm of the government, they are a private entity. They are free to choose a nominee however they wish, like always.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Which normally is not something I particularly love about the DNC but it may actually be the thing that saves us from Trump

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

And notably it wouldn't just be a decree from on high, it'd be officially picked by the delegates. There was still (technically) a primary this year, with delegates heading to a convention to vote on who becomes the nominee. I'm sure there will be a lot of backroom plotting to try to figure out a good replacement before the open votes start, but at least there's an air of legitimacy as (many of) the people who officially make the decision have some connection to votes cast. It's more an appearance thing than actually separating the pick from "the party establishment", but that's a pretty important aspect.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 months ago (1 children)

We didn't always have a primary system, that's relatively recent.

In the past, the candidate would be picked at the convention after much wheeling dealing. "Smoke filled rooms" and all that.