this post was submitted on 21 Jun 2024
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Housing Bubble 2: Return of the Ugly
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So.. older homes are.. cheaper?
Other way around. Total = new - old. It's not very clear that the label is the equation.
so... new houses are cheaper?
That's what this graph says.
Flipped. Houses are in essence bottled / shelved inflation. Purchasing a house aligns you with inflation until you attempt to sell (at which point you realize that shelved inflation and generally pass it on to the buyer.)
Home owners are the least likely to want to get burned by pullbacks in this transaction so they will typically resist negative price movement when listing. The same goes for valuations being inflated as well as a host of other dubious practices. So basically we are artificially holding a price on part of the sell side market while builders are trying to sell homes and the prices are falling to entice new buyers (... which still aren't buying.)
When the price falls too much: homeowners flip and become 'motivated' (see big short scene with the realtor.) This becomes precipitous and the bottom falls out on the market.