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I guess my question is, why would anyone continue to "consume" -- or create -- real csam? If fake and real are both illegal, but one involves minimal risk and 0 children, the only reason to create real csam is for the cruelty -- and while I'm sure there's a market for that, it's got to be a much smaller market. My guess is the vast majority of "consumers" of this content would opt for the fake stuff if it took some of the risk off the table.
I can't imagine a world where we didn't ban ai generated csam, like, imagine being a politician and explaining that policy to your constituents. It's just not happening. And i get the core point of that kind of legislation -- the whole concept of csam needs the aura of prosecution to keep it from being normalized -- and normalization would embolden worse crimes. But imagine if ai made real csam too much trouble to produce.
AI generated csam could put real csam out of business. If possession of fake csam had a lesser penalty than the real thing, the real stuff would be much harder to share, much less monetize. I don't think we have the data to confirm this but my guess is that most pedophiles aren't sociopaths and recognize their desires are wrong, and if you gave them a way to deal with it that didn't actually hurt chicken, that would be huge. And you could seriously throw the book at anyone still going after the real thing when ai content exists.
Obviously that was supposed to be children not chicken but my phone preferred chicken and I'm leaving it.
I try to think about it this way. Simulated rape porn exists, and yet terrible people still upload actual recordings of rapes to porn sites. And despite the copious amounts of the fake stuff available all over the internet... rape statistics haven't gone down and there's still sexual assaults happening.
I don't think porn causes rape btw, but I don't think it prevents it either. It's the same with CSAM.
Criminally horrible people are going to be horrible.