this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2023
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I think that talking about the "salary" you want in retirement is misleading. When you're working, you have a top-line salary that's really easy to access and pin your concepts of lifestyle to, but actually has very little to do with your lifestyle. Example: if you've got $100k salary, you're probably paying something like $30k between federal, state, and SS taxes. If you're maxing your retirement contributions, there goes another $20k, and you're only taking home $50k.
If you're saving 50% of a $100k top-line, including that 401k contribution, then you're probably living on something more like $30k after taxes, and it's a lot easier to save enough to pay yourself $30k than $100k. If you're living on $30k/year withdrawals from savings, you're not going to pay taxes. You're not going to need to save $50k/year. You only need to replace that $30k, and 25*$30k is just $750k.
The 25x rule includes $0 social security. Reasonable for FIRE people, who may aim not to work enough to qualify for SS, but if you will, then you can calculate the savings equivalent to your estimated income. eg, if they say you'll probably qualify for $1500/month = $18k/year, that's equivalent to 18k*25 = $450k savings.