I think it depends on whether Treliving owns his mistakes or not. This is totally a roster problem, not a coaching problem.
this post was submitted on 18 Jan 2024
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Do you really think so? Keefe benched Kampf recently as if he was the reason they're losing games. That seems like poor coaching to me. Looking at replays after a lot of goals against, it's defensive breakdowns/bad positioning that has lead to the goal. Also a coaching problem, but maybe not Keefe in that case.
Take a look at the run the Oilers are on after changing coaches. Sometimes that's all it takes.
Keefe benched Kampf because he wasn't playing well, not because he was the team's only problem. He's also the 4th line center.
If you look at the Oilers, everyone was underperforming before the change. McDavid was underperforming. No one on the Leafs is underperforming. A new coach isn't going to make Matthews score more goals or Nylander have a better year. They aren't going to make Domi better at playing D either -- no coach in his life has been able to do that. Tavares has had a bad stretch but he's still getting scoring chances like crazy. Samsonov's had a bad year but goalies are like weird exotic birds that are fine one day then you're calling in the top weird bird expert from Switzerland and a renowned pet psychologist the next because they're flying into walls and pooping on themselves for no apparent reason.
If you go back and read analysis from the pre-season or listen to the Leafs Report podcast around that time, everyone was saying that it was hard to put together 4 lines that make sense with this team. And that they'd have trouble defending and killing penalties because everyone good at that left and weren't replaced. There aren't really signs that Keefe's lost the room and they're having the exact problems everyone predicted they'd have.
At the end of the last game, Keefe didn't shorten the bench to 3 lines, he shortened it to two. He just played the top two lines over and over for the last 5 minutes. It's not like they're doing what he wants but his systems aren't good enough. The bottom 6 just cannot play D. This team desperately needs someone in the bottom 6 who can defend and a top-4 D who can kill penalties.
I think Treliving needs to fix the mistakes he made in the offseason. Toss out the snot and bring in people who actually fill needed roles on this team. I kinda wish we could just bring Dubas back. He never let a problem this glaring linger for this long.
I understand that Kampf wasn't playing well, but that's part of my point. Is benching your fourth line center really the right move when other players/lines are also having problems?
Granted the majority of the Oilers team may have been underperforming, but I don't think it's just a coincidence they suddenly started performing better after a coaching change.
The Leafs don't really need to score more goals, they're tied for 5th in the league in goals for. Their goals against is the problem. Their penalty kill is brutal, reinforcing the defense and goalie problems this season. People have been talking about Tavares' slump, but you're right that he's been getting chances. He's also great at creating pressure in the offensive zone, which he doesn't get enough credit for.
What mistakes do you think Treliving needs to correct? Domi and Bertuzzi have 23 and 19 points respectively right now and are both on one year deals. Klingberg obviously didn't work out, but never seemed to be healthy, which there was no way to know going in.
I agree that they need a solid bottom 6 defensive forward and a d-man that can reliably get the puck out of the zone. Those two things would make a big difference to the overall performance of the team.
I think benching Kampf was just saying "okay, you signed your big contract but you still need to earn your place." I don't think it was about the team, just that Keefe thought Kampf wasn't playing well enough.
Comparing with the Oilers again, they were supposed to be one of the best - if not the best - teams in the league. They are now playing to their potential. The Leafs aren't underperforming. This is what you'd expect with the team they have. A bunch of players are having career years. A new coach won't make a team play better than they're capable of.
I think the bad thing about those contracts is not just that they haven't worked out but that they didn't make sense. Both Domi and Klingberg are players that marginally increase offense at a huge defensive cost. That's not what this team needed at all. Scoring isn't a problem. They need defensively responsible players that can chip in now and then. Domi has the most protected minutes on the team and he's still barely out-scoring that defensive liability (he's +1). It would be so much worse if Keefe was just rolling lines. Because Keefe can't trust the bottom 6 to defend, the top 2 lines are playing too much and in less than ideal situations, which could be a problem as the season drags on. Reeves, Domi, and Klingberg were all solutions in search of a problem.
Bertuzzi is fine but hasn't really worked out as hoped. He seems like a good guy to have around for the playoffs though. You're right though that it's good that none of those players are signed for term (except Reeves for some reason).