I sympathize, most of my work falls under the category of 'creative' too. But this conversation about AI & robotics needs to quickly move to UBI, or universal access to basic needs like health and housing. The day is coming when AI & robots can do all work, but for pennies on the hour & a free market economy isn't viable any more. This approach doesn't acknowledge that; it still assumes a free market economy can work in the future.
this post was submitted on 22 Oct 2024
82 points (95.6% liked)
Futurology
1776 readers
72 users here now
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
The day is coming when AI & robots can do all work
I really don't think we are anywhere close to this. I don't even expect to see it in my lifetime.
If AI/robotics follow the typical s-curve of technological adoption, I think the 2030s is most likely. We already seem to be at the beginning of that s-curve in 2024.
The fields of AI and robotics exists for much longer. The first industrial robot was installed in 1961. The first artificial neural network in 1958. I'd argue the s curve started there. Even humanoid general purpose robots existed in 1986 with Asimo for example. But with such a long lead time, I expect reaching the top of the curve to take multiple decades.
If you're assuming that we have the technology now in its prototypical early-adopter phase then your estimate of 2030 is for adoption of LLMs and generative AI.
We don't have even prototypical AGI yet, and it is AGI which is necessary to "do all the work." The s-curve of technological adoption assumes that the technology exists at the start of the curve. This is what I meant when I said "I really don't think we are anywhere close to this."
I work in manufacturing environments and the technology is further than i want to admit but luckily businesses NEVER spend the money for the full package. It's always half DIY at best. It's always a disaster right around the corner.
I'd rather see skilled artisans and crafts people flourishing than hear another venture capitalist shilling AI's purported merits infinitum.
These are simply the next iteration of snake oil salesmen.
AI is poised to crush labor and enrich Capital, at a time when Capital is already breaking records in profits leached directly from workers' quality of life.
If it doesn't contribute to the same broad economic footing as we saw in post-war 1950's America, then frankly, no thanks.
But this conversation about AI & robotics needs to quickly move to UBI
Indeed. Any ideas for growing [email protected]?
apart from posting regularly, sadly I don't have many ideas. 😞😞
We've had real trouble growing this site from the reddit sub-reddit, and the promotional posts we've done, in total, have had tens of thousands of views
Do you know of any good sources of UBI news?
That I can help you with.
Without doxxing them, this reddit user campaigns a lot IRL on UBI - their posts/UBI subreddits have loads of stuff - https://www.reddit.com/user/2noame
Also Twitter has load of stuff - search 'UBI' there, scroll down based on 'Top' and there are lots of accounts devoted to UBI news.
BTW - You're welcome to setup https://futurology.today/UBI here too & cross-post/double-post if you want
Is Thom Yorke hiding behind Rick Wakeman’s dad?
Abe Simpson: "It'll happen to youuu."