In today’s NY Times/Siena poll Kamala Harris has a 93-point net advantage with Democratic voters while Donald Trump has just an 80-point net advantage with Republicans - an indication that the unprecedented number of high profile Republicans opposing Trump are having an impact.
this post was submitted on 08 Oct 2024
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I like how this and the Reuters/Ipsos poll that has her lead dropping are both on the front page right now.
Don't pay too much attention to polls. They're broken as hell right now.
Anyone ever been polled? I haven't and nobody I know has either.
I think the Internet ruined polling they dunno how to collect data correctly anymore they're probably stuck with boomer brains on the topic or something
I definitely got a poll a few years ago from a GOP senate candidate that was a bunch of questions like “How TERRIBLE has Joe Biden’s economic policy been???”
It was literally damn near impossible to select responses that actually conveyed any reasonable favor toward a Democrat policy or action. Now granted, this wasn’t a national pre-election poll that any reasonable aggregator would include, but it’s still a reminder that statistics can be whatever you want.
That's just a "push poll". They're only used for marketing/propaganda and fund raising. I doubt they even look at the responses.
I've been called and texted a bunch. I only answered 1 call last night and answered their polling. I should have mentioned Lemmy and the fediverse and the only place I get my news, so they would focus more on it, but I didn't think about it in time.
A guy in the mall polled me one time but he just asked me questions like "name something you groom yourself with"
Duh, a bride, obviously.
I live in Tennessee, and I don't think we've even had a statewide poll since Biden dropped. I wasn't contacted for that one. But - everyone knows which way Tennessee's gonna go, so it's not like it matters. I'd be curious to see if Harris moved the needle, though.
Please crush the Orange Turd for good.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/harris-republican-trump-polls-frank-luntz-.html
So a couple of things...
-
As usual, national polls are useless. Numbers after the jump.
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"pollster Frank Luntz said."
- Obligatory "Fuck you, Frank!"
For those who don't get that reference, it's from Penn and Teller's "Bullshit!" episode on polling:
Now... ALLLLL that being said... Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number.
AZ - Toss Up. Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
NV - Toss Up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
NM - Harris +5, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
GA - Toss Up, 5 separate polls show tie votes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
FL - Trump +6, +13, +14
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
NC - Toss Up, Harris +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
PA - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, +4, Trump +1, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
MI - Tie, Harris +2, +3. 3rd parties 0 to 1%, no impact.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
WI - Harris +1, +2, +3, +4, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
MN - Harris +5, +6, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Plotted on the map:
As usual, PA is a must win. If Harris takes it, that's it, she doesn't need anything else.
Failing that, NC or GA + any 1 other state. AZ + NV alone is not enough, that drops her right at 268.
For Trump, he has to win PA to stay in, that gives him 238, from there he needs 32 more. So NC + GA. Or NV + AZ and either NC or GA.
Minimum 1 state for Harris to win, PA. Also a 2 state win of NC or GA + 1 other. Max would be 3 states. AZ, NV + 1 other.
Minimum 3 states for Trump to win (PA, GA, NC), could be as many as 4 of the 5 outstanding (PA, AZ, NV, + GA or NC)
Can someone further compress this down so my illiterate ass can parse it more easily?
Harris has 3 paths to victory, a 1, 2, or 3 state solution.
Trump has 2 paths, a 3 or 4 state solution.
Only 5 states are up for grabs. If Harris loses PA, she has 2 more options.
If Trump wins PA, he still needs 2 to 3 other states.
Thank you for the hard work you put into this! This is really encouraging.
Kamala needs 1 state
Trump needs multiple states
All kidding aside, OP did a great job compressing it all in the last 2 paragraphs.