this post was submitted on 16 Apr 2024
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Abacus Data’s latest polling has the federal Conservatives out to their biggest lead in over a decade. Unless there is a drastic change over the summer, Canadians ought to prepare for a Conservative majority at some point in the next year or so.

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No one should be paying closer attention than Danielle Smith and the United Conservative Party.

A change of government in Ottawa would have a major impact on provincial politics in Alberta. With no whipping boy or scapegoat in Ottawa, the provincial UCP would need to shift focus and even rebrand.

At the same time, the Fair Deal strategy launched by the Jason Kenney government and accelerated by Smith has created a set of demands and expectations upon the next prime minister that may be difficult to walk back.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (9 children)

So the Liberals —who had a majority government and declared that we would never have another election using FPTP— chose to put a bunch of people in a room together who they knew wouldn't agree on anything, and then those people came back and said "yeah sorry we couldn't agree on anything", and the Liberals were just like "yeah no worries. We didn't expect you to agree on it... Wow, electoral reform is really hard! We give up!"

And you don't view that as the Liberals killing electoral reform? You are a sucker falling for their incredibly transparent attempt to pawn off the blame. It was absolutely their responsibility and their fault.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 7 months ago (7 children)

Anyone with experience in politics knows why the Liberals did what they did.

IF the Liberals had pushed through the legislation, the CPC and Bloc were both going to portray it a Liberal power grab, and that message would definitely get traction. The CPC had already said they'd revert back to FPTP, and the Bloc was making noises that they'd back them up.

That's why the Liberals went out of their way to do what they did. What they didn't expect was the NDP going all or nothing on MMP, a system that laypeople find difficult to understand, and certainly not one to be explained easily in a sound bite.

Internal Liberal polling, not the dog and pony online poll, found that most people didn't care, but could easily be convinced it was a power grab. They were putting a lot of effort in something that had no upside, but a pile of potential downside.

They cut their losses, and aside from online forums, paid little price for it.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Congrats on having "experience in politics" (whatever that means), but it seems like you just used a lot of words to agree with me:

Trudeau lied about electoral reform.

Trying to justify it with Machiavellian politics doesn't change that simple fact.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 7 months ago

No. That's a completely reductivist take. They gave it a shot, the NDP were MMP or bust, the CPC got the others to agree to a referendum that they knew would fail. At that point the project was dead.

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