this post was submitted on 24 Feb 2025
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[–] [email protected] 55 points 16 hours ago (34 children)

Russia is going to run out of troops.

IDK when, but they're basically feeding their population into a meat grinder trying to take Ukraine.

That's not too say the Ukraine isn't taking losses.... I've just, seen some numbers that indicate that Russia is going to run out of people to send to their deaths before Ukraine will.

Putin needs to give this up before he doesn't have a military anymore.

[–] [email protected] 31 points 15 hours ago (5 children)

To be clear: The Russia's losses are increasing month after month, but their recruitment capacity is not. They are recruiting about 1000 soldiers every day, maybe a bit less. And the number seems to be going down, not growing. They are losing 1300 to 1800 each day now meaning a net loss of something like 400 to 900 soldiers per day!

They won't run out of population anytime soon, but they will run out of soldiers.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 7 hours ago (2 children)

They are losing 1300 to 1800 each day

Russia is losing up to half a million men per year? What's your source for this? It seems outlandish

[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

Ukraine publishes daily statistics about Russia's manpower losses. One would think those numbers are simply propaganda and any army would "of course" exaggerate such numbers.

But, firstly: The numbers reported by Ukraine rise and fall hand-in-hand with the numbers given by Oryx. There is something of an almost fixed multiplier between Oryx numbers and official data provided by Ukraine. And the Oryx numbers are always published later than Ukraine publishes its own, so Ukraine cannot be just copying Oryx's numbers and multiplying them. And it's logical that Oryx shows only a fraction of the real number, because for most Russian combat losses there is no photo proof, and Oryx only counts what has photo proof.

So, at least the Ukrainian numbers rise and drop without fake data added. Then the question is whether the scale of the numbers is correct, or if Ukraine intentionally inflates them with some static multiplier. Since there is data about the Russia's recruitment capacity and the whole size of the Russia's army, it's visible that by recruiting about 1000 per day they can keep their army's size constant. That shows that the losses must be around the same ballpark. And it coincides with the numbers published by Ukraine.

But yes, now that Russians mostly do not have tanks to use in their attacks, they are really using pure meat wave attacks, and that costs a LOT of men. There's a reason Putin is trying to convince Trump to force Ukraine into an armistice. Losing that many soldiers – indeed almost half a million per year! – is extremely unsustainable, no matter what image Putin is trying to give.

And remember: these numbers are about irrecoverable losses, of which only a fraction are deaths. The number of deaths is far lower.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 2 hours ago

I think these guys are CIA bots. They aren't using common sense. Everyone including the state department and CIA agrees that Russia has air superiority right? What do you think the casualties of Russia are compared to Ukraine?

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