this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2024
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I get that building factories takes time, but I'm honestly wondering: Given that Russia right now is producing far more artillery shells than the rest of Europe (estimated ≈6x or something), which in turn produce more than the US, and NATO stockpiles are low due to donating to Ukraine: If Russia crosses the NATO border tomorrow, how quickly could Europe get its shell production up to say 3-5 million/year, which is what the current war makes it seem like we'll be needing? It honestly makes me a bit pessimistic to see that it takes us years to build a factory like this. I would like to hope that we're capable of building the tenfold of this in months if shit hits the fan...
Honestly, at this point, war footing for Europe or America would at best cut the time in half. And that is being generous. Truthfully it may shave months off at best due to the lack of meaningful factories to convert.
On the other hand, we have a lot more diverse arms beyond artillery shells that would both need production increases as well as stockpiles we would empty in the meantime. Aerial bombs, other ground based missile platforms, possibly even other artillery shells that are simply not compatible with Ukrainian systems currently in use.
America in particular is not a heavy user of artillery for the prior 50 years, and mostly as defensive weapons currently. And the American military would be pushing to turn it from a defensive to offensive war as soon as possible.