bloodfoot

Sure but the high performers are usually the first ones out the door. That’s arguably gonna cost them more in the long run but who cares about the long run when this quarter’s profits are so high.

Local roaster in Champaign Illinois called Columbia street roastery. I don’t live in the area anymore but I order online and they ship wherever. My personal favorite is their black velvet; it’s dark but incredibly smooth.

here's their website

And if you’re male.

Edit: FFS does no one realize that women experience sex differently from men? Bad sex with an oblivious partner can be downright painful for a woman. The same is typically not true for men. My point was not that women don’t have sex or that they don’t enjoy sex. My point is that they don’t experience it the same way as men.

More than one, actually.

My personal take is that intelligence is much like muscular strength. Genetics probably play a role but the more important factor is how you use and train your cognitive strength. A cognitively sedentary person will almost always be less intelligent than a cognitively active person, I doubt genetics play a large role unless we’re talking about people who put similar levels of effort into their development and upkeep.

This gonna be a shit show.

A healthy office culture and team members to collaborate with. I go to the office because interacting with my coworkers in person is enjoyable and I learn new things faster through those interactions. It helps that we also have free coffee and snacks and the commute is less than 10 minutes but I primarily go in because of the people I work with.

You did not calculate that right. What I wrote comes out to 1/2816, which is fully 8 orders more likely than your initial estimate. And this number is still probably a lot lower than the true probability.

There are A LOT of independent lines of evidence that point very strongly to the conclusion that humans are causing a massively disruptive change to the earth’s climate. This heatwave is not the nail in the coffin, it’s just (small) data point. Trying to oversell it like you are only serves to entrench deniers who will assume that you are making an intentionally misleading argument.

If we stick with your 1/44 assumption, we can then assume 50% chance that the following day will also be a record setting day (probably too low still but the math is easier). Your one week estimate would be (1/44)*(1/2)^6.

Not to be too pedantic but your back of the envelope probabilities are based on inaccurate assumptions and probably several orders of magnitude off. Specifically, your not just assuming uniform but also independent from one day to the next. A more accurate treatment would be to assume conditional dependence from one day to the next (the Markov property). Once you have a record hot day, you are significantly more likely to have another record hot day following it.

That said, it’s still low probability, just not as low as what you’re saying.

No, that seems right to me.

Atropine? My cat had keratitis right after we adopted her and we gave her that with a cocktail of antibiotics and steroids. The atropine caused her eye to dilate so she looked like a Bond villain while her eye was healing.