this post was submitted on 21 Aug 2023
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Considering how crazy expensive accommodations have become the last couple of years, concentrated in the hands of greedy corporations, landlords and how little politicians seem to care about this problem, do you think we will ever experience a real estate market crash that would bring those exorbitant prices back to Earth?

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[–] [email protected] 233 points 1 year ago (15 children)

No, unless we separate housing from investment, it will never be affordable. I don't foresee the political will to make it happen.

[–] [email protected] 91 points 1 year ago (7 children)

This is the biggest issue right here. Houses weren't always investments and making them investments was a terrible idea that's now difficult to fix.

Real estate has become a huge part of stock market and GDP figures. People's retirement funds have become other people's mortgage and rent payments. Affordable houses for some would mean economic decline for others, and no political party wants to create economic decline.

[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Maybe, but really the issue is construction of new houses. Cities are much cleaner now so people want to live in them. They used to be filled with factory smoke and animal feces.

Yes, more than now. No I don't care that you saw some poop yesterday. The streets were literally caked with horse poop. You wouldn't even notice dog poop.

And most jobs used to be physical, so the average person would have some experience in carpentry. If houses were too expensive, you would find a friend or relative with some expertise and build something yourself. So houses outside the city were cheap because you could build new ones, and houses inside the city sucked (and were cheap).

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[–] [email protected] 44 points 1 year ago (7 children)

Still trying to understand how everything has to be crushed under capitalism. Food. Health care. Housing. Travel. It all there to spin up cash.

Can’t wait till they figure out how to monetize air 🫠

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Can’t wait till they figure out how to monetize air

Saw this at a Walgreens last week.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 year ago (2 children)

These are really popular with people traveling to Colorado ski resorts and getting altitude sickness. They’re useful to grab to avoid getting sick and combating the symptoms if you do.

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[–] [email protected] 107 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I honestly think were heading for a total societal collapse. If the people with power and resources were the sort that were inclined to use it for good, they would have done it already. Given that we haven't seen this, it's reasonable that this accumulation at the top will continue unabated and that more and more people will fall into poverty and despair.

This is a recipe for revolution, and revolution is largely incompatible with stability, especially in the near term.

I wish this wasn't the case. I suspect this century''s deaths will dwarf last century's.

[–] [email protected] 48 points 1 year ago (7 children)

Look at other countries. Huge slums / shanty towns get built and normalized long before revolution.

If you're living in a plywood shack, but still have a phone with data, some games to play, ebt / food bank to eat, you're not about to pick up arms. At least most people in that spot won't.

[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Maybe you're right, but it's also possible that people in those places have been living with those conditions all their lives and it creates a kind of apathy. If you take away everything from people who thought they'd have a kind of middle-class future, we don't quite know what that looks like yet. I suspect it won't be exactly the same.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The younger generations today are already giving in to that apathy.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 year ago (5 children)

We'll see what happens then. Apathy and despair is one possible combination. Anger and despair is another. They have very different results.

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[–] [email protected] 62 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Not without some real force or change, middle class has invested to much of their retirement into the housing market to allow the prices to tank. Those who have are not going to risk it for the have nots.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Imagine storing all of your nation's wealth in real estate that is actively decaying by the minute instead of into companies that make products and provide jobs. What a stupid fucking idea.

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[–] [email protected] 60 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (4 children)

No. As the effects of climate change become worse, people will migrate to cooler places, which will only push up prices in those places. Poor people will be left to live in uninhabitable and uninsurable areas, while the rich will get to live in comfort.

Climate change is essentially a class struggle, like everything else in life. As long as the 1% don’t have to suffer, nothing will be done. To get the rich to do something about climate change, it will have to affect them directly.

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[–] [email protected] 51 points 1 year ago (4 children)

No. Expensive housing is a genie in a bottle.

Once sufficient people have purchased a house at the high price, it would be in their interest for prices to remain high. Corporate entities that buy up houses will actively lobby to make sure housing prices stay high, and the average Joe who paid that much for a house will be happy it stays that way.

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[–] [email protected] 49 points 1 year ago

I think were closer to seeing people be forced to rent every comoddity they need to live than we are to seeing full home ownership.

[–] [email protected] 44 points 1 year ago (17 children)

The solution is simple, but will never happen. Make it illegal to own a home you don't live in.

[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 year ago

Or at the very least make taxes paid proportionally more for each home you own past 1

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 year ago

I bought an apartment about 15 years ago. I finally finished paying it about 3 years ago, and recently got an offer to move to Ontario. With the current house prices and what I was offered there (about 80k), I could barely make rent for my family. I really wanted to move but had to say no because of stupid absurd rent prices. What’s weird is that if I wanted to rent the place I bought I would not be able to afford it either. This is bullshit.

[–] [email protected] 33 points 1 year ago (1 children)

There are 2 big obstacles we need to overcome. The first is corporate ownership of residential property. This needs to go away.

The second big issue, we need to build higher density housing, and get rid of the enormous parking spaces that take up our downtowns. Not everyone needs a house. And you can absolutely build medium density housing that doesn't feel cramped. Sure, living in an apartment is not perfect, but you are closer to the places you want to go, and public transportation is more feasible. It's a win-win for everyone.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 year ago (2 children)

The problem with high density housing is that the quality is shit. The quality is shit with lower density housing too, but things like thin walls in apartments goes a long way to people wanting to join in the sprawl. Developers fight tooth and nail against any regulations that are focused on QOL or environmental improvements (like "passive house" standards) and promise that they will make it cost far more than necessary if they are so burdened.

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[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 year ago (5 children)

This is kind of just something that krept into my mind but I think with a slowing birthrate that we may just end up with too many homes at some point in the next 25 years.

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[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Yeah but the market is going to have to absolutely tank first. There's a lot of money in that bubble, and it's going to be fucking painful when it does. But it'll get there.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

When it tanks people would be laid off and have no money for houses. Basically 2007 all over again. The rich would swoop up all the cheap real estate.

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[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 year ago (1 children)

After the climate mass deaths, migrations and/or wars, there should be plenty of land.

Although it might not be habitable.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Plenty of unoccupied land, but not unowned.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 year ago

Perhaps, but what is ownership without a state to enforce it? Companies/landlords would need to occupy and defend it themselves.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

The problem is not affordable housing, there's plenty of that in the US, the problem is getting people to states where housing is affordable without significant drops in quality of life due to lack of access to services and such.

Like, you could buy land in Detroit for the price of a decent car, put a trailer on it and you're already on the property ladder, but you're in Detroit.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago (1 children)

This sounds great, but when people start moving, pricing goes up. There's too much investing and too little self-ownership of housing.

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[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Not until people get off their asses and show the 1% they have no real power. In order to make an omelet, you need to break some eggs. It is long past time to crack some shells.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago (3 children)

The only way that the 1% lose their power is if the rest of us unanimously decide they no longer have power. Which is why there is so much effort put into preventing any kind of agreement.

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[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I can’t speak to other markets but in California, the housing bubble is in part supported by investment from around the world. Chinese and Russian nouveau rich are buying homes in CA because it’s a safe place to keep their money relative to their other options. They might even just leave them empty and watch them appreciate. It’s disgusting, when people are struggling like hell just to live.

Perhaps the state could regulate this and ban international purchases or empty homes but I highly doubt it since the horse has left the barn decades ago and this would deeply impact many rich people, and those people have influence. It would also tank the home values of many average Americans, which would be deeply unpopular as many of those folks are banking on taking that value with them to Mexico or Ecuador to retire on. So this regulation would be bad for the rich and unpopular at large. It would help the young and the poor, the two chronically underrepresented groups.

So unless we can change the entire world order, I don’t see this wholly going away. Can we make it better? I think so. We need more supply, and it needs to be high density and low cost. Those are not insurmountable. But right now, private developers and the government don’t have what it takes to do anything.

I know someone who works for a low income housing non profit and they manage 8 big apartment buildings that their non profit built or bought and they operate them as homes for low income people. They are funded by philanthropists large and small as well as some public money.

If we could find a way to direct more money to such things, we could make a real impact. Perhaps a wealth tax that goes directly to such housing.

But even then, it’s like MediCal - it will only help those in abject poverty. It wont help my cousin who is making $125k and still can’t afford to buy a home. Middle class will never get help, basically, and this is why you see them moving elsewhere.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 year ago (1 children)

It's not just the Russians and Chinese. In rural wine country where I grew up, more than a third of the properties have been bought up by millionaires that visit maybe two weeks out of the year, hollowing out the town, and gentrifying anyone who was middle class or lower out of the area. Another third of what used to be rental housing is now air BnBs. Teachers and EMTs can't afford to live within an hour drive, so public service quality has cratered. None of the kids I went to high school with still live in the area (although many commute in, as they tried to make their careers where they grew up).

While recently we've seen more Chinese, the Russians haven't really made an impact. The trend (in this locality), however, was absolutely started by New York financiers, and had been ongoing for at least 15 years before foreign investment capital showed up.

This is what irritates me when people say there isn't enough housing supply. There are 16 million vacant homes in the US. It's not a supply issue. It's a class and economic issue.

I know it sounds radical, but I support a law would force landlords with property that has been vacant more than six months to offer it to section 8 recipients as a rental. I think this would cause a significant positive adjustment in the market, making housing more affordable and expanding access to those who need it most. Many landlords refuse to rent to section 8 whatsoever, so if they still want to avoid those tenants, they'd have to ensure their property is rented, opening up more housing and driving down rents.

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[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I suspect that a strong push for fully remote work would help the US with housing costs due to a chunk of the workforce moving out of the cities and into the boonies.

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[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 year ago

No. With climate change more land will be unlivable, there will be more conflicts and more immigration (legal and illegal). Housing will increase because demand is high and supply will shrink further b

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago (3 children)

No. Not because of overpopulation or such, but because the powers that be have simply discovered how lucrative it is to use housing as a business investment, and the fact that everyone NEEDS housing, no exceptions.

This is essentially a supply problem, so the "supply side" of this equation is the side with all the power. The end.

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Only if capitalism falls. Otherwise zero chance. Sry.

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Just keep building, and change zoning laws to make that easier.

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

No, at least not in countries (e.g., the USA) that rely on the state to micromanage every aspect of zoning, and which therefore allow NIMBYs to derail progress at every possible step.

In a better world we would draft new laws to throw out our entire zoning system, and start over with something much more flexible at the state or national level- ideally based on the approach Japan uses, which defaults to mixed-use for every building and makes NIMBYism structurally impossible.

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 year ago (6 children)

No.

I never wanted to be a homeowner personally, but earlier this year I noticed that four AirBNB's had materialized just on my little block in America, so I bought a condo. I paid $40,000 more than it cost ten years ago, but it's beautiful, I like it, and it gives me the ability to stay where I want to long-term, so here we are.

The Federal Government is not going to act on the forced scarcity of housing, so expect the issue to be handled similar to the way states handled COVID. Some states had good policies. Most had shitty policies, but overall, the outcomes were negative to some degree, and that's almost certainly what will occur with housing over time.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

I mean I do kind of expect the world to completely collapse within 20 years, so kinda?

A cave or a half-destroyed building in an overgrown city are free right? Doesn’t get cheaper than that.

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