this post was submitted on 17 Sep 2023
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NonCredibleDefense
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why would chechens rebel now but not when he was alive?
Kadyrov's death would create a power vacuum. While Kadyrov is alive, his control over the various groups of Chechnya means that they're united behind whatever he throws his weight behind - generally, Russian bootlicking. When he dies, there will be a massive power struggle.
the police state hasnt gone anywhere and moscow will just hand over the reigns to the next in line. i concede that it does make sense that the replacement might cause more tension between those in power, but i dont think that kadyrov himself is very important
"reins"
Horses have reins, kings have reigns.
"Handing the reins over" is a reference to handing horse reins over.
thank you
You're welcome
But do reigns have reins?
If we're talking about Shadowfax, yeah
I don't know the books by heart, but I think he didn't have reins.
There's not really a clear 'next-in-line'. Kadyrov has multiple sons, most of them young, and his leadership is based very heavily on the ties and agreements made with other Chechen groups, not organized, formal state institutions as we would recognize them. When he dies, all of that is up in the air - even the most bootlicking of them will be seeking to renegotiate on more favorable terms - and throwing their weight behind whoever promises that. Chechnya is not a 'normal' Russian republic. It's very much a special case.